Do snowstorms disprove global warming?

The two snowstorms that hit the U.S. east coast in the past few weeks have been touted by many climate change contrarians as proof that the theory of global warming is incorrect. Much of the focus was on Washington, DC, because that's where media people and contrarian politicians are concentrated. Here I examine the many errors associated with this line of thinking.

First, contrarians argued that snow equals cold, and therefore that an unusually large amount of snow means unusually cold. Of course this is a logical fallacy: anyone who has lived in a snow-prone area like my hometown of Buffalo, NY knows that unusually cold means less snow, because very cold air holds less moisture. Large snowfalls are usually associated with warm, moisture-rich air. In Washington DC it is usually cold in enough in January and February to snow, so what was unusual about the two snowstorms was how much snow fell, not how cold it was. Thus, people were confusing precipitation and temperature. In fact, the theory of global warming predicts more intense storms, because the atmosphere has more energy, and greater amounts of precipitation, because the atmosphere is warmer and therefore can hold more moisture. The storms on the east coast resulted from warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico moving northeast and hitting cold dry air from Canada. This caused the warm moist air to cool, and because cold air can hold less moisture than warm air, the excess moisture fell as snow. This was expected because El Nino has been active off the U.S. west coast, and this typically causes more precipitation in the southern and eastern U.S. (note that El Nino events are expected to become more frequent and intense as warming continues).

Contrarians were also confusing local and global. They were committing the logical fallacy of over-generalizing when they inferred from observations on the U.S. east coast the condition of weather globally. They don't seem to understand that it's possible to be unusually cold in some areas but unusually hot in the rest. For example, looking at a global map of temperature anomalies for the month of December 2009 (data from NASA), we can see that it was unusually cold in the U.S. and Siberia, but unusually warm in the rest of the world:

Finally, contrarians were confusing weather and climate. On the short term of weather (days, months) it is entirely possible to have unusually cold temperatures; warming just makes them slightly less probable. But over the long term of climate (years, centuries, millennia) the trend is towards increasing average global temperatures.

So when arguing that snowstorms on the U.S. east coast refute global warming, contrarians were confusing precipitation and temperature, local and global, weather and climate. Is it possible to get any more confused about global climate change?

For more information see http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123671588

For humorous takes see http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-february-10-2010/unusually-large-snowstorm
and
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/264085/february-10-2010/we-re-off-to-see-the-blizzard

Composting

Household garbage often contains a large amount of organic debris that contains stored energy. One of the easiest and most satisfying ecological practices is to compost your waste and produce valuable humus, the organic-rich component of soil that is rich in nutrients and microbes and is essential for fertile soil. At our first house my wife and I bought a large plastic container for composting, but at our second house we used a more environmentally friendly and cheaper approach by building a compost container out of stakes and metal screens used for gardens (Fig. Compost_pile). If designed and maintained properly, compost bins do not usually smell badly, but to be safe we placed ours at the back of our yard. The disadvantage is that we have to walk a few hundred yards to dispose of waste in our compost pile, so we reduce the number of trips by using a small container that we fill and then carry to the compost pile. This is about the only effort required for passive composting, which takes about one year to completely breakdown organic debris into humus. Active composting can produce humus much more quickly, but requires much more effort, and in general I prefer the easy approach. We occasionally stir and water the pile, and then remove soil from the bottom of the pile for our gardens. And we follow some simple rules. First, we add no meat or fatty foods like butter that can attract animals and smell when they spoil. We try to use ½ green, wet material such as tree and bush trimmings and grass clippings that are nitrogen-rich, and ½ brown, dry material (decayed leaves, straw, wood chips) that is carbon-rich ([1], pp. 111-121), in addition to any compostable food waste we produce (banana and orange peels, used coffee grinds and tea leaves, eggshells, corn husks, artichoke leaves, and spoiled fruit and vegetables). We add these materials in layers. It’s better to have too much brown than green material, as too much green can cause formation of molds and bad smells. We don’t add weeds to our compost so as to avoid adding their seeds to our gardens when we add composted soil. Compost bins do not need sunlight, so we placed ours in a shady corner of our yard.

Start your compost pile by mixing together yard litter and foodstuffs, mixing in a small amount of soil that contains the necessary microorganisms, and adding a little water. Little may happen in the first few weeks, but once the microorganisms multiply and establish healthy colonies they will start digesting the waste, extracting energy for their metabolic processes and releasing some of the energy as heat. You will know that your compost pile is working when you feel it giving off heat. When oxygen is present the breakdown of organic matter can be described by the reverse of our model chemical reaction for photosynthesis:

C₆H₁₂O₆ + 6O₂ = 6 CO₂ + 6 H₂O

The heat comes from the energy of the sun, temporarily stored in organic molecules by plants utilizing photosynthesis. Essentially the same reaction occurs in our bodies when we consume food; respiration releases the energy stored in the food so our bodies can use it. Oxygen is present under aerobic conditions, and the microorganisms use it to breakdown (oxidize or combust) the organic molecules to extract their energy, but if the oxygen they use is not replaced, then eventually it will all be consumed, and under such anaerobic conditions the above reaction grinds to a halt. What happens next is that anaerobic fermentation reactions begin to breakdown the organic molecules and produce alcohol, the same process that we use to make bread and beer with yeast (the alcohol escapes from the bread during cooking). Anaerobic respiration also produces lactic acid in our muscles when we strenuously exercise: the body cannot replace the oxygen fast enough, so it begins to break down sugars and fats anaerobically (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-does-lactic-acid-buil). The problem with alcohol production in the compost pile, however, is that alcohol is a disinfectant, so it sterilizes the pile, wiping out the microbial communities. And anaerobic respiration tends to produce odors from compounds like hydrogen sulfide, which gives the “rotten egg” smell you associate with swamps, where it is produced in the same way.

Finished compost should be dark brown. If it is black, your compost pile does not have enough oxygen; you need to add less water, and aerate the pile by turning it over. A simple approach to solve both of these problems is to place perforated PVC pipes, ones that are slightly greater in length than the diameter of your pile, at various heights in the pile. The pipes will suck air in to provide oxygen to aid decomposition, and drain off excess water.

Creating your own soil by composting is one more way to move yourself toward sustainability and independence [1]. And composting, combined with recycling, has greatly reduced the amount of waste we put in garbage cans.

1. Kellogg, S. and S. Pettigrew, Toolbox for Sustainable City Living. 2008, Cambridge, MA: South End Press. 241

Buy Green and Encourage Sustainable Design

Besides avoiding purchases of disposable products and junk that is designed to break, and repairing rather than replacing, you should try to purchase products that are designed sustainably, made from renewable resources, and manufactured locally (to reduce carbon emissions from transportation and to help your local economy). When contemplating a purchase, ask yourself, “Do I really need this product? Will it add value to my life? Was the product manufactured in an eco-friendly way? Will its use harm the environment?”

When making purchases, avoid greenwashing, the practice of attaching a green label to a product that is not eco-friendly ([1], pp. 38-9). A perfect example is the Ortho Ecosense line of insecticides http://www.scotts.com/smg/brand/ecosense/brandLanding.jsp, where the word "Ecosense" is displayed in large green letters, but in smaller letters underneath it says "not intended to imply environmental safety either alone or compared to other products". So why are the letters in green and the prefix "Eco" in the name? Because it helps sell the product, even if for the wrong reasons.

New sustainably designed products are hitting the market, but if no one buys those products, then we will lose the opportunity to help make the market more eco-friendly. Consumers have the power to make the market more green by choosing eco-friendly products.

Simple rules should guide the design of sustainable products. Consumers should look for products that follow these rules. For example, Edwin Datschefski (in “The Total Beauty of Sustainable Products”, Rotovision, 2001) states simply (see [1], p. 86) “that things must be cyclic, solar, and safe”, and that “an object’s total beauty should not be undermined by hidden impacts.”

There are many examples of home interior products that are designed sustainably.  Bamboo is becoming a popular choice for wood flooring because this fast-growing wood is beautiful, durable, and renewable. For carpeting check out DuPont’s Smart-Strand, which is made from corn, is recyclable and biodegradable, and costs no more than comparable nylon carpeting. Using renewable corn instead of non-renewable oil to make the plastic saves a gallon of gas for every seven square yards of carpet.  Eco by Cosentino is a durable surface made of 75% recycled content composed of post-industrial or post-consumer materials bound by an environmentally friendly resin which comes in part from corn oil (See http://www.pr.com/press-release/158589). Vetrazzo’s recycled glass countertops contain 85% recycled glass by weight. The glass comes from curbside recycling programs, post-industrial usage, windows, dinnerware, stemware, automotive windshields, stained glass, laboratory glass, reclaimed glass from building demolition, and other unusual sources such as decommissioned traffic lights. Ivy Coatings make a zero VOC, non-toxic paint that can help improve indoor air quality.  Finally, Ultra Touch Insulation is made from recycled denim jean (also http://www.pr.com/press-release/158589).

Designing sustainably takes creativity. As stated by the inventor Edwin Land, creative and effective design requires the “sudden cessation of stupidity” ([1], p. 84). When you encounter a creative sustainable design for the first time, the usual reaction is to say, ‘why didn’t anyone think of this before?” because it is better in every respect than the old design, and yet it is simple. A design I recently encountered, the parking lot swale, elicited that reaction from me. Parking lots often flood because asphalt and concrete are impermeable. They need a sink for water to flow into and infiltrate into the ground during heavy rain events. The only permeable surfaces in parking lots are the islands, which are usually raised beds surrounded by concrete barriers. Water does not flow to the islands because it does not flow uphill. A smart and simple alternative is to make the islands depressions into which water will flow (Fig. Parking_swale_schematic.jpg). The depressions do not need to be surrounded by concrete barriers, and they effectively drain water from the parking lot (Fig. Parking_lot_drainage.jpg). And the parking spots themselves can be partially carpeted with grass (Fig. Green_parking_lot_Ikea.jpg) or porous concrete. These measures reduce the risk of flooding, allow water to infiltrate and recharge the aquifer, reduce the “heat island” effect caused by the high heat absorption and thermal mass of asphalt, and reduce the amount of rainwater shunted into storm systems, which saves energy used to pump and treat the water. Also, by increasing the amount of plants, they help increase water retention, remove pollutants, act as windblocks and noise mufflers, and beautify the parking lot. And all of these benefits come for free, because the sustainable design costs no more than the old unsustainable design.

One of the goals of the sustainability movement is to close the manufacturing loop. Currently most products track a linear path from resource extraction to manufacture to use to disposal. In a closed loop products are never disposed of; they are either reused or recycled. How do we know if sustainable practices were followed at each step in the lifecycle of a product? One way is to see if the product has been certified. For example, a Cradle to Cradle (C2C) platinum certified product is produced sustainably, and at the end of its usable life can be recycled, or is biodegradable, as described in “Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things” by William McDonough and Michael Braungart (North Point Press, 2002).

1. Steffen, A., ed. World Changing: A User's Guide for the 21st Century. 2006, Abrams: New York, NY. 596.

Our Relationship with Nature

*Please note: I haven’t been posting recently because there have been so few comments that I was not convinced anyone was reading my entries. If you read this entry, please post a comment (click the “Comment” link at the end). You don’t even have to write anything; I just want to use the number of comments to estimate how many people are reading. If no one is reading these, then I’m not going to bother posting any more. Thanks, John

Till now man has been up against Nature; from now on he will be up against his own nature.  ~Dennis Gabor, Inventing the Future, 1964

There is a basic antagonism between the philosophy of the industrial age and the philosophy of the conservationist. – Aldo Leopold

Environmental problems develop when there is an unhealthy relationship between humans and the environment. The ways people approach, treat, and think of nature depend on their self-image. According to Wilson [1] there are two competing types of human self-image, exemptionalist and naturalist. Exemptionalists believe that humans exist apart from environment and hold dominion over it. In western civilization, most believe that God made the environment for our benefit, and that we have the freedom to use it as we see fit. Using technology, we can improve our current environment or adapt to any new environments. In contrast, naturalists believe that humans have perfectly adapted to our environment through millions of years of evolution, but that we are now rapidly destroying that environment. However, we can only be happy when we live in our original, natural environment because it is prescribed in our genes. The basic principle of organic evolution called habitat selection states that species prefer and gravitate to the environment in which their genes were assembled. Thus, we are completely dependent on our environment, including other species.

Wilson supports the Naturalist view. He states that the failures of the Biosphere 2 project (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BioSphere_2) show that we and our environment are fragile and that our current technology cannot be used to create artificial sustainable environments. Exemptionalists claim that new technologies (power of the human mind) and free-market economies will provide adequate resources for the growing population; however, Wilson points out that there are limits to the amounts of water, arable land, oil, and food (including seafood), that can support us, and all of this is complicated by global warming. Exemptionalists are taking a gamble when they advise pressing forward with current policies and assume that technology will provide solutions to these growing problems before they become disasters. Ecologists like Wilson don’t like these gambles because they know that if we lose, we lose everything.

Wilson [1] believes that economists, who generally take the exemptionalist point of view, promote policies that are inconsistent with sustainability. Their economic models ignore human behavior, and they ignore the environment. A big problem is that they assume that there are adequate resources for all countries to have the same standard of living as the U.S.. However, the U.S. can only maintain its standard of living by using the resources of other countries (“economic miracles are not endogenous”), which we will demonstrate in detail later. Finally, economists do not use full-cost accounting, i.e., they don’t include the loss of natural resources. In this book I advocate a naturalist approach to solving environmental problems and achieving future sustainability.

The different approaches to nature are illustrated in J.R.R. Tolkien’s “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy. Elves lived symbiotically with nature and are presented as pure and good, while the ugly and evil orcs used resources like trees in a non-renewable way and transformed their environment into a wasteland. Clearly, to Tolkien it was evil to destroy the beauty of nature. In the Lord of the Rings some humans sided with elves and some with orcs, just as today humanity is divided between naturalist and exemptionalist camps (I’m not trying to say that exemptionalists are as ugly as orcs).

I am a naturalist rather than an exemptionalist, so I believe it is most effective to work with rather than against nature. You must always keep in mind that Nature is a powerful force; it is constantly at work, and while your short bursts of work may be more intense, and the use of energy from oil can magnify your efforts, eventually Nature will win because it has limitless time. How did streams cut through mountains to create water gaps? How did ancient mountains almost completely erode away? In ”The World Without Us”, Alan Weisman [2] describes what would happen to our structures (cities, buildings) if humans disappeared. It wouldn’t take long for nature to completely erase the evidence of our existence.

1. Wilson, E.O., Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge. 1998, New York, NY: Vintage Books. ISBN 367 0-679-45077-7.

2. Weisman, A., The World Without Us. 2007, New York, NY: Picador. ISBN 416 978-0-312-42790-0.

Why Not Nuclear?

Nuclear power has always been controversial. The fear of nuclear power plants is usually irrational, but the danger posed by nuclear waste is real. Unlike most environmentalists, for most of my life I have been pro-nuclear. Nuclear power plants produce about 20% of electricity in the U.S. [1] (15% globally), but that number has not increased since the 1980’s. Three obstacles prevented growth of nuclear power in the U.S.. First, a large part of the public resists expansion of nuclear power because they fear all things nuclear. Nuclear power will always be associated in people’s minds with the use of nuclear bombs in WWII and the fear associated with proliferation of nuclear warheads during the Cold War. Furthermore, radioactivity is particularly frightening to people because it is invisible and outside of their normal experience. Fear makes people irrational, and as a result, I have never been able to convince any opponents that nuclear power is safer than other forms of energy, even though I have the statistics to prove it (see section on “Risk”). In the U.S. the only significant nuclear power plant accident ever was the Three Mile Island accident in central Pennsylvania in 1979, a minor accident that released very little radioactivity into the environment. Both Three Mile Island and the more serious accident in Chernobyl, USSR resulted not from technology problems but human error. Despite the fear it invokes, nuclear power has a remarkable safety record. Second, electricity generated using nuclear fission reactors is more expensive than electricity produced using natural gas or coal. Finally, we have no site to store the radioactive Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) from fission reactors. For these reasons, no electric utility companies have applied to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a license to operate a new nuclear power plant in over 20 years. However, the recent recognition of the need to reduce CO₂ emissions has reopened the debate: should we expand the use of nuclear power in the U.S.? Nuclear reactors do not emit CO₂ or any other pollutants, giving them a decided advantage over fossil fuel-powered plants. Moreover, if we start to tax energy produced by burning fossil fuels, then nuclear power may become economically competitive. President Obama's proposed cap and trade program to reduce CO₂ emissions would internalize the social cost of carbon emissions, increase the cost of fossil fuels, and make nuclear energy more economically feasible. That would leave only one problem: Can the U.S. choose a site and build a facility for storage of SNF? And if the cost of waste disposal is factored in, would nuclear energy still be cost-effective?

I think the answer to both questions is no. After the federal government spent $13.5 Billion dollars developing a high-level nuclear waste disposal site at Yucca Mountain, about 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada, newly elected President Obama announced that the government was abandoning the project (http://www.nevadaappeal.com/article/20090306/NEWS/903069981/1070). When the President’s science advisor was asked why, after waffling for several minutes he finally said, “We can do a better job.” Considering that our country spent over 30 years developing the Yucca Mountain site, and that 30 years later it will be even harder to find a site that is acceptable to all parties (the NIMBY syndrome), I am not holding my breath. The Yucca Mountain project fell victim to politics. Senate majority leader Harry Reid represents southern Nevada, where resistance to the Yucca Mt. project has always been strong, and he had previously vowed to kill the project. This is an example of how some individuals gain too much power and abuse it by appeasing narrow interests and disregarding the greater good. Perhaps Harry Reid thought that it was his duty to do what his constituents asked (though I doubt it), but the same will happen with every state that is chosen in the future, making it almost impossible to build a facility. Nevadans named the 1982 Nuclear Waste Policy Act that named Yucca Mountain as the nation’s waste disposal site the “Screw Nevada Bill”, but now < 1% of the population got what they wanted and screwed the rest of the country.

I know many people who are still asking, “why not nuclear power”? However, I bet none of those people would be willing to have a nuclear power plant or waste disposal facility sited in their community. NIMBY is a powerful force in the U.S.. As always, the Golden Rule applies: do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Don’t ask others to shoulder the burden to satisfy your energy needs.

Even if the U.S. had followed through and built the Yucca Mountain facility, it would not have been large enough to accept all of the waste we would have by the time it opened. The U.S. currently has 103 operating nuclear power plants [1]. By law, the capacity of the Yucca Mountain facility was limited to 70,000 tons, of which 63,000 tons were designated for SNF and 7,000 tons for defense waste. However, it is estimated that by 2050 the U.S. will have 84,000 tons of SNF [2]. The U.S. now has SNF at over 100 sites in 42 states [3], and we have now eliminated our only option for safely disposing of it. And the federal government now pays fines of ?/year to the utility companies for breach of contract: they had promised to take the SNF off the hands of the utility companies by ?, but the waste still sits at the site of each nuclear reactor that produced it.

*Next post: The Nuclear Waste Disposal Problem

1. Wallace, M.J., Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Hearing on the Department of Energy's Nuclear Power 2010 Program. 2005.

2. Carter, L.J. and T.H. Pigford, Getting Yucca Mountain Right. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 1998. March/April.

3. Long, J.C.S. and R.C. Ewing, YUCCA MOUNTAIN: Earth-Science Issues at a Geologic Repository for High-Level Nuclear Waste. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2004. 32(1): p. 363-401. http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/loi/earth

Change Your Transportation

Transportation has a huge environmental impact, so society must focus on reducing that impact. Consider the environmental impact of a single automobile that travels an average of 100,000 miles in its lifetime. There is the damage that results from the manufacturing of the car and the mining and processing of the raw materials; from the drilling, transporting, and refining of the oil and gas that it uses; and from the emission of green house gases, NOx that contributes to acid rain, and ozone that causes photochemical smog. There are many other problems associated with automobiles. Driving a car is one of the riskiest activities we engage in, and cars make walking and bicycling much more dangerous on shared roads. Much of our country has been paved over by roads and parking lots, which has increased flooding risks but also uglified our landscape (I love Joni Mitchell’s song “They Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot”). Driving in heavy traffic is very stressful, often leading to episodes of “road rage”. Yes, driving in the countryside without other cars can be very relaxing and enjoyable, but how often does that happen today, and is it worth all of the problems it creates? My prediction is that the most significant lifestyle change in the U.S. in the next two decades will be the abandoning of the car culture. That lifestyle won’t disappear completely, but it will become less prevalent as the price of fuel dramatically increases (due to peak oil and carbon taxes). The change may be traumatic, as 88% of workers in the U.S. travel to work by car, making the U.S. particularly vulnerable to peak oil [1]. People will choose smaller cars, cars that do not run on fossil fuels, or other modes of transportation including moped, bicycle, and mass transit. They will move closer to their jobs to decrease their transportation costs (I hope to buy a home within walking distance of my work before peak oil makes the cost unaffordable). They will take fewer long trips, and they will go to school closer to home. They will travel less for work, as companies try to cut costs. Telecommuting will become even more widespread, and in many cases, videoconferencing will make travel to meetings unnecessary. All of these changes will reduce traffic congestion and pollution, increase our national security by decreasing our dependence on foreign oil, reduce CO₂ emissions contributing to global warming, and I would argue, increase our health (more walking) and quality of life (less time wasted in traffic, better scenery).

Change What You Drive

The technology of automobiles hasn’t changed dramatically over the last 100 years. Most still use a standard internal engine fueled by gasoline. Throughout my life, U.S. auto manufacturers have presented prototypes of cars that were supposed to change the way we drive, but none of them ever came to fruition. Production and leasing of the EV-1 in the 1990’s signaled a potential shift to electric cars, but GM aborted that foray into new technology by confiscating all of the cars and destroying them, as documented in the film “Who Killed the Electric Car?”. However, contrary to general wisdom and the claims of some environmentalists, electric cars currently are not better for the environment. That is because the electricity used to power them comes primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, especially coal. Also, they are inherently less efficient, because any time you convert energy from one form to another you lose some energy. Converting fossil fuels into electricity to fuel automobiles is much less efficient than using them to fuel the car with an internal combustion engine directly. The same argument holds true for the now heralded hydrogen cars, which use electricity to produce hydrogen gas H₂, which in a fuel cell in the car reacts with oxygen gas O₂ to produce H₂O, releasing energy in the process. Although the hydrogen-fueled car emits only water, the process of producing the hydrogen requires lots of energy that usually comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which emits large amounts of CO₂ and other pollutants. So how can we make cars less harmful to the environment? First we must convert our primary source of energy from fossil fuels to renewable forms like wind and solar. Then we should use the electricity that is produced to fuel plug-in gas-electric hybrid cars, or eventually to produce H₂ gas for hydrogen-fueled cars.

Hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius have already raised the bar for energy efficiency. Hybrids have both a gasoline engine and electric motor. They produce electricity through regenerative braking, and automatically shut off the engine when idling. Another promising development is cars that run on biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel. Flex cars can use ethanol or gasoline, but this is not a new technology, as it dates back to the original flex-fuel vehicle, the Model T, built in the 1910s. Many have concluded that production of ethanol from corn is not energy efficient, with some estimates showing that it requires more fossil fuel energy to produce the ethanol than is obtained from burning it. In addition, use of corn for ethanol production has increased the price of corn worldwide, which is a serious problem for the poor who depend on it for food. An increase in the price of corn causes increases in the price of all products for which corn is used as a feedstock. This problem of using food for fuel can be avoided by producing ethanol using switchgrass and wheat straw, which are also more energy efficient than corn.

So what can you do now? First, make every effort to decrease the number of miles you travel. Combine your errands. Never idle you car. Make sure your car is in tune and properly inflate the tires to maximize gas mileage. Carpool whenever possible. Make purchases online rather than driving to the store. Accelerate and decelerate slowly, and try to maintain a constant top speed. Ask your boss if you can telecommute one day per week. Vacation locally, or consider purchasing carbon offsets for the miles that you travel for vacation [2].

When the time comes to change your ride, buy a fuel-efficient hybrid as soon as you can, or even better, switch to mass transit. Encourage your employer to pay for your mass transit costs (like my employer, Vanderbilt University, they may be willing to do so because it means they will save money by building fewer parking garages). Imagine how much money you would save if you didn’t have monthly car and car insurance payments.

In the future, I envision a decentralized system of energy production for fuel-efficient homes and cars. Picture a windmill in your yard, and solar panels on your roof. The wind and the sun that power these energy sources are free and limitless. The electricity that they produce could be used to power your home and your plug-in electric car, or to produce hydrogen for the fuel cell in your car, all with zero CO₂ emissions or pollution.

1. Brown, L., Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization. 2008, New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Co., Inc.

2. Jeffery, Y., L. Barclay, and M. Grosvenor, Green Living for Dummies. 2008: For Dummies.

Book Abstract

The environmental impacts of increasing human population, consumption, and technology are now widely recognized and global in scale. Humanity is now bumping up against the limits defined by earth’s carrying capacity. Rising costs of many natural resources reflect the combined effects of shrinking supplies and increasing demand. Global production of oil has peaked and is now declining, portending long-term cost increases for fuel and food. Global production of other resources such as marine fish are also declining. Global warming threatens supplies of food and water and may make many locations uninhabitable. Overconsumption and pollution have led to water shortages in many countries. The global reserve of grain has shrank for the last eight years, and during that time the price of grains has increased 2-4x (*check). The global ecological footprint is now 1.3 Earths, meaning that the growing human population and economy have overshot the capacity of earth to regenerate resources and absorb waste by 25%. Humanity was last sustainable in the 1980's, and most global human welfare indicators have declined since the 1980's. The only solution to these multiple threats is for humanity to adopt sustainable living practices that help to preserve People, Prosperity, and the Planet and guarantee that future generations can live as well as we do today. First, we must switch energy production from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. This soft approach of decentralized use of renewable resources that do not emit CO₂ is preferred over the hard approach of centralized energy production using non-renewable resources because it is sustainable and increases our energy security, and it would make the use of electric and hydrogen-fueled cars truly CO₂-free. A drastic reduction in the number of coal-fired power plants can reduce the problems of CO₂ emissions, acid rain, and unsafe fly ash and coal slurry ponds. Power plants that continue to burn fossil fuels could capture and sequester CO₂ in the ground. Water conservation and decentralized purification or privitization can help ensure adequate, safe drinking water supplies.

In the last 100 years, cheap oil has fueled rapid global and particularly U.S. economic growth and helped us to produce the food needed by an exploding human population. As oil production drops, oil prices will rise, and so will the cost of food and nearly every product on the market. Of greatest concern is the potential increasing cost and scarcity of food. Current agricultural practice requires 10 calories of oil energy for production of one calorie of food energy. Global warming, decreasing biodiversity, and water scarcity will compound the problems of energy and food shortages. In this declining world, people will need to adapt to living with fewer resources and less wealth.

The changes that are required to make our society sustainable may be too great to achieve through action of a centralized government, particularly because the U.S. government relies on continuous economic growth and is beholden to corporate interests. On the other hand, decisions made collectively by individuals can greatly reduce the ecological footprint of societies. High prices will force people to make sustainable lifestyle choices, including purchasing fuel-efficient vehicles and decreasing miles traveled by moving to high-density housing close to the workplace. This will lead to a reversal of the decades-long migration from cities to the suburbs, eventually resulting in the rebirth of cities and decay of the suburbs. Anticipating these changes can help individuals make smart investment decisions.

The goal of this book is to convince you that change is coming. You can try to ignore or deny change, but you will be better off if you anticipate change and adapt to it. Because the change will involve resource shortages, you can best adapt by limiting your resource use. Stop living large! Reduce your consumption, and reuse and recycle everything. By reducing your ecological footprint and living sustainably, you can be happy while living on less, and because you will incur less damage on your environment, it will be able to provide you with more. On the other hand, if you continue to take more from the environment, it will have less to give you in the future. You can be happier if you simplify your life and live sustainably. Once you have reformed your own lifestyle, you can help to reduce the ecological footprint of others. Protest the opening of any new coal-fired power plants. Convince your community to switch to compact fluorescent lights or even ban incandescent lights. Try to move your workplace toward sustainability by starting recycling programs and discouraging the use or sale of disposable products such as bottled water. The more positive changes you make, the better chance our society has for survival, and the better life will be for us and our children.

Reduce Your Waste

In 1990 U.S. citizens generated over 4 pounds of solid waste per day, or over 1500 pounds per year. Individuals in most other developed countries generate only half that amount. Over 39% of municipal solid waste is paper, something we can easily reduce. Most communities dispose of solid waste in sanitary landfills by dumping it on the ground and covering it each night with a fresh layer of soil. Rainwater can infiltrate the waste and dissolve material to form a “leachate” solution, so modern landfills have liners and leachate collection systems that prevent the leachate from contaminating the underlying groundwater. However, unregulated and pre-regulation landfills have extensively contaminated groundwater aquifers. There are about 3,000 landfills in the U.S.. Most people don’t want a landfill sited near their home, an example of the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) syndrome. Also, because expansion of urban centers and overall population growth make it difficult to find suitable locations for landfills, the number of landfills and the capacity of landfills in the U.S. have been decreasing, and some cities are finding it hard to find places that can accept their waste. The most famous example was of a garbage barge that in 1987 could not find a facility to accept their waste, and after traveling over 5,000 miles over 112 days it finally unloaded its waste at an incinerator in Brooklyn, New York (http://www.nytimes.com/1987/07/11/nyregion/trash-barge-to-end-trip-in-brooklyn.html).

Two alternative approaches are to recycle and to incinerate waste. Until 2007, the city of Nashville burned their garbage and used the released energy to heat and cool metro buildings downtown. However, the smell of the garbage, the increasing value of the riverside property that the incinerator was located on, and the fear that the incinerator released heavy metals from its’ smokestack, led the city to close the operation.

Your effort to reduce waste must start at the beginning, when you are in the purchasing phase [1]. First, don’t buy a product unless you need it. Never buy disposable products or junk that will need to be replaced frequently. Next, buy products with minimal packaging, avoiding those that are “individually wrapped”.

Choose products that are made from recyclable materials, not plastics that can’t be recycled . When possible, buy products with provisions for returning or recycling the used product. Always remember to bring your reusable bags when you go shopping, and place fruit and vegetables directly in the bag rather than using the plastic bags in the produce department. Save some trees and use less paper: don’t subscribe to newspapers or magazines, since most of the information they contain can be obtained online. This semester I taught a class on Sustainability, and we went almost completely paperless (e.g., term papers were turned in, graded, and returned electronically). When you use paper in the office, always print double-sided, or reuse paper that has been printed on only one side.

The mantra for reducing waste is the 3 R’s: Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle, in that order (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste_hierarchy). It’s best to reduce by consuming less. For example, I run a chemical laboratory at Vanderbilt University. We used to buy chemicals in bulk to reduce the cost per unit volume. However, we rarely ended up using all of the chemicals. When labs are closed down (when Professors retire), large amounts of chemicals, some hazardous, must be disposed of at great expense. When you consider that the environment was degraded twice, both in the production and disposal of the waste, and the fact that the chemicals were never used, it all seems very wasteful. Now we buy small quantities of chemicals, and purchase replacements when needed.

There are numerous references that give ideas on how to reuse and repurpose materials. For example, Jeffery et al. [1] suggests that we reuse plastic bags after washing, use empty glass jars as storage containers (it’s nice to see what’s inside a container without opening it), shop at second-hand clothing and book stores, and reuse wrapping paper. Reusing and repurposing items is also an opportunity for you to think “outside the box” and be creative. I personally always reuse disposable paper and plastic shopping bags. I store recyclables in the paper bags until they become unusable, and line garbage cans with the plastic bags. We forgo our reusable shopping bags only when we run out of disposable paper or plastic shopping bags. We donate our used clothes to Goodwill unless they are in bad shape, in which case we cut them up and use them as rags. Though I love books, I now avoid purchasing them, and instead sign them out of the library to save both money and paper.

Many charities accept used goods for reuse. This year we donated a computer to the National Christina Foundation. I personally found it rewarding to fix the computer up and then drop it off at a school for children from low-income families. Goodwill accepts many types of items and resells them in their stores. We have donated furniture and electronics to Amvets, and many charitable organizations are in need of used cars – you can claim a nice tax deduction for donating an old car instead of taking it to the dump.

Recycling is often the first concept that comes to mind when people discuss green living. That’s because we can recycle without really changing our lifestyle, so it is comparatively easy. Just throw the item in a recycle bin rather than a trash can. However, not everything can be recycled, especially when we consider cost. Moreover, not everything needs to be recycled, as I will now demonstrate. Students in my Sustainability class were upset when they learned that Vanderbilt recycles paper, plastic, and aluminum, but not glass. That got us talking about reasons for and costs of recycling. I noted that glass is a harmless material that is costly to recycle. Glass is made by melting beach sand containing silicate minerals like quartz (SiO₂). The sand melts over a range of temperatures, and isn’t completely molten until temperatures of around 1200°C (this temperature is lowered by addition of fluxes such as lime CaO, soda Na₂O, and sometimes Borate B₂O₃). To heat it to such high temperatures requires a lot of energy. It takes a lot of energy to remelt the glass during recycling, and because glass is relatively inert and won’t cause environmental damage when disposed of in a landfill, forgoing recycling was not as evil as they perceived. On the other hand, glass recycling uses less energy than manufacturing glass from sand, saving 315 kg of CO₂ for every ton of waste glass recycled (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass_recycling), so recycling glass is still preferable. The best option is to reuse the glass, so it doesn’t have to be remelted.

The material that saves the most energy by recycling is aluminum. Aluminum ore is called bauxite, and it contains aluminum oxides that must be converted to metal. This means the Al³⁺ in the oxide must be reduced to metallic Al⁰ by adding three electrons, which requires a lot of energy because Aluminum prefers to be in the +3 state. This also means that Al metal will oxidize when in contact with oxygen in the atmosphere, but fortunately the process is very slow. Al metal has a very low melting temperature, so it takes a lot less energy to recycle the aluminum by heating and melting it than it would to mine more bauxite and convert the oxide to the metal.

The other thing to keep in mind is that it only makes sense to recycle materials when there is a market for the recycled product. For example, recycled paper is generally inferior to first-use paper, so different uses must be found for it. Fortunately, clever people are thinking of many new uses for reused and recycled products.

Whenever you are about to throw something in the garbage, think about whether that item can be reused or recycled. Repair it, or find someone who could use it, perhaps by selling it on eBay. Consider whether the waste is hazardous, which would require special disposal (we will discuss this in the next section). Don't just throw it in the garbage without thinking!

1. Jeffery, Y., L. Barclay, and M. Grosvenor, Green Living for Dummies. 2008: For Dummies.

Change the Way You Live: Sustainable Living

"The diligent farmer plants trees, of which he himself will never see the fruit." — Cicero

You go into a community and they will vote 80 percent to 20 percent in favor of a tougher Clean Air Act, but if you ask them to devote 20 minutes a year to having their car emissions inspected, they will vote 80 to 20 against it.  We are a long way in this country from taking individual responsibility for the environmental problem.  -William D. Ruckelshaus, former EPA administrator, New York Times, 30 November 1988

The activist is not the man who says the river is dirty.  The activist is the man who cleans up the river.  -Ross Perot

Materialism is widespread in our culture. It is perhaps the most important social force in our society. It drives our economy, fuels our desires, and preoccupies our minds. Americans are addicted to shopping and self-indulgence. We continue to spend even when we don’t have any money, which is part of the reason why our country is now in the throes of an economic crisis (another reason is that we are bumping up against the physical limits to growth where our demand (ecological footprint) exceeds the supply (biocapacity)). That we continue to purchase products that we don’t need and can’t afford, when we buy them when we know we shouldn’t, when the anxiety caused by accumulating financial debt does not prevent us from purchasing more, then we have an addiction, a disease of the mind. The symptoms are an uncontrolled compulsion to shop and purchase items and the habit of “going shopping” whenever we have free time even when we don’t need anything. There is also a buildup of tolerance to the pleasure of shopping but decreasing satisfaction with continuing purchases, so we must buy more to get the same “high”, a sure sign of addiction. The following sections contain prescriptions to the disease of consumerism. Many of these prescriptions are common sense, and they don’t require the knowledge of a scientist to explain or elaborate. However, I am reminded of the numerous books and magazines sold daily that tell the reader how to lose weight. The answer is obvious (stop eating!), but sometimes we need encouragement. Also, I would argue that here we are dealing with a much larger problem than obesity, and unlike obesity there is more than one way to reduce the problem.

How Should I Start Living Sustainably?

We have to shift our emphasis from economic efficiency and materialism towards a sustainable quality of life and to healing of our society, of our people and our ecological systems.  -Janet Holmes à Court

Reduce Your Consumption

We’ve reviewed a lot of evidence that consumption has the biggest impact on the environment. I hope it has convinced you to change your lifestyle. But how? What changes will have the greatest effect? To reduce consumption requires changing the way you think and how you spend your time, which is not easy. So be patient, and take small steps. Don’t get frustrated. It will probably take a few years of effort before you become satisfied. Start small, or start with the “low-hanging fruit”, the easy changes that have a big impact.

First, you must divorce yourself from materialism. Look around your home. How much do you own? How much of it do you really need? When looking at past and potential purchases, ask yourself if you would be less happy if you didn’t own it. If you are still tempted to make an unwise purchase, remind yourself that it is unsustainable, and picture what it will look like in a landfill a few years in the future. Remind yourself that the peace of mind you gain from keeping that money in the bank, or avoiding another credit card purchase you can’t afford, is worth more than the item. Pat yourself on the back for not letting advertisers manipulate your behavior. If you stop and think this way before making any purchase, you will avoid the trap of impulse buying that comes naturally in a materialistic world.

When trying to reduce consumption, one of the easiest guidelines to remember is to avoid disposable products. I’ve followed this guideline for most of my life, because it always seemed so obvious to me: products are designed to be disposable so that we will spend much more money continuously replacing them. Disposable products may seem more convenient, but often they are marginally so, and using them generates huge amounts of waste. Water bottles have become a symbol of our wasteful society, and rightly so. It’s so easy to avoid using disposable water bottles: buy a BPA-free water bottle, carry it with you wherever you go, refill it for free, and wash it every day. You can save yourself lots of money by doing this.

It’s useful to keep in mind that corporations always try to sell as much product as possible. They do this by convincing you through advertising that you need something that you don’t really need. There are endless examples of ways that advertisers try to get consumers to consume more, e.g., Taco Bell serves a "4th meal", and movie theaters have increased the size of their drinks to the point that they no longer fit in the drinkholders, both obvious examples of why America has an obesity epidemic – we are victims of advertising. Some advertisers suggest that you can’t be happy without their product; for example, Best Buys motto is: "You. Happy."

Another way that corporations get you to buy more is through the use of planned and perceived obsolescence. Everyone born before the 1970’s has the perception that the quality of products has declined, and that products are now designed to be disposable. I remember that my grandfather spent a lot of his time fixing things, and as a result, he seldom had to purchase replacements. In fact, I still have some of my grandfather’s tools, which are now between 50 and 100 years old. How many of today’s products last that long? Few do because most products now are designed with planned obsolescence in mind. Again, the goal of the manufacturer is to get you to buy as much of their product as possible, so they design the product to fail after a planned amount of time, usually just after the warranty lapses. In fact, most consumers now accept that they will have to buy a replacement shortly after the warranty expires, but it wasn’t like that in the past. My parents and grandparents each owned only one vacuum in their lifetimes, but today people frequently replace their vacuums after only one or two years of service. The vacuums are made so cheaply that they are not even worth repairing. Do you remember TV and appliance repair shops? You almost never see them now, because it usually is more expensive to repair a product than to replace it. Now the old product goes into the landfill as waste, and we waste more time shopping for and more money purchasing replacements.

Corporations and advertisers also rely on perceived obsolescence when they try to convince you to replace a product that still works perfectly well. By emphasizing a fancy feature in each new version of a product, usually a feature that you are unlikely to use and definitely don’t need, they convince you to buy replacements on a regular basis. This strategy has always worked well for car sales, but it works even better for new electronic devices that perform better tricks every year. I know people who buy annual upgrades of products such as the IPod nano or the IPhone because Apple is so remarkably good at marketing. I personally am a technophile, so I enjoy playing with gadgets and figuring out how to use all of their features (I even read the manuals!), but I still use less than half of the features bundled in most of my electronic gadgets. Yes, I am tempted to buy the newest versions of these products, but I know I don’t need them. From my experience, the constant upgrading is time-consuming and expensive, and I have more enjoyable and less expensive things to do. To convince myself not to buy them, I find the best strategy is to remind myself how much time it will take to figure out how to use them and to configure them properly. I now strive to simplify my life and eliminate clutter, a topic to which we will return.

Sometimes it’s not easy identifying the cheaply made junk. A good source of information on product reliability is the magazine Consumer Reports. Over time, you will learn which brands and countries sell junk, and which make reliable products. My grandfather used to say decades ago that anything marked “made in China” was junk, and that may be even truer today (and we now know that they frequently make their products using materials that are bad for our health).

Besides avoiding purchases of disposable products and junk that is designed to break, and repairing rather than replacing, you should try to purchase products that are made from renewable resources and that are made locally (to reduce carbon emissions from transportation and to help your local economy). Always keep in mind that your goal is to reduce your footprint. Does your footprint look like that of an elephant, or of a mouse? Stop living so large!

Is Our Current Lifestyle Unsustainable?

Human population is estimated to increase from 6 to 9 billion by 2050, but humans already use over half of accessible runoff and about 40% of plant growth for the energy stored in plants by photosynthesis [1]. We have created large holes in the ozone layer and increased the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere by more than a third. The rate of species extinctions is growing exponentially (we are actually in the midst of earth's 5th mass extinction event, primarily caused by humans), and the percentage of fisheries fully exploited is nearly 80%. How many humans can Earth support? In this chapter, we look at sustainability as a balance between ecological resource supply and demand.

The ecological footprint is a measure of your resource demand. It is an attempt to estimate how much of earth’s resources you consume, and how much of an impact you have on the environment. There are many ways of calculating the size of your footprint, as you will find if you search the Internet for ecological footprint calculators. One way to express the size of a footprint is as the number of Earths that would be required to support the world’s population if all humans consumed resources at the same rate, i.e., the global ecological footprint. One problem with this approach is that the number of Earths then depends on the global population, which is exponentially increasing. It is thus a moving target. In spite of this problem, it is still a useful way to compare qualitatively the environmental impact of different lifestyles. Another more accurate method is to estimate the area of earth and sea that are required to support an individual’s lifestyle by regenerating renewable resources and absorbing wastes. If measured in productive land area, the global ecological footprint in acres per capita is 6.8, while citizens of the U.S. require 23.5 [2]. I like to think that I could sustain my family of four on our relatively large suburban yard of 1 acre, but to live like average U.S. citizens we would need 4*23.5 = 94 acres!

The concept of the ecological footprint is clearly Malthusian. It assumes that there is a fixed amount of resources available. It raises an important question: What is the carrying capacity of the Earth, the number of humans that Earth can support sustainably? Estimates range between 4 and 10 billion, depending on the average environmental impact of humans [3]. Remember that I = P*C*T. Assuming T is equal to one (*elsewhere we will debate whether T is smaller or greater than one, i.e., whether technology increases or decreases our environmental impact), then one Earth can sustainably withstand a maximum level of human impact Imax = P*C. If we reduce consumption C, we can increase population P and still maintain the equality. If all humans minimized C by becoming vegetarians and we farmed all arable land, then the maximum population that Earth could support Pmax = Imax/Cmin = 10 billion people. However, currently our consumption rate is closer to Cmax, and in this case Pmin = Imax/Cmax is about 4 billion. The current global population is 6 billion. According to the Living Planet Report 2008 [2], the current global ecological footprint of that 6 billion people is 1.3 planet Earths (See Fig. Global ecological footprint from [2]). This means that humanity uses ecological services 1.3 times faster than Earth can renew them. We are in “ecological overshoot”, i.e., our population and impact have grown so much that the earth can no longer support us sustainably. In order to live sustainably, humanity must reduce its total ecological footprint to one earth, either by reducing consumption or population. We can choose now to reduce consumption, but if we don’t act then eventually nature will make the choice for us and without mercy, and global population will decrease until it reaches a sustainable level.

The maximum amount of ecological services and resources that Earth can provide is termed the biocapacity. It is a measure of supply, expressed as the amount of land available for production per capita. The global biocapacity is -0.6 hectares per capita, again indicating that we have a global ecological overshoot (see Fig. Footprint and Biocapacity factors that influence overshoot from [2]). For the U.S. it is -4.4 hectares per capita [2], which explains why the U.S. has to import so many goods. Our use of ecosystem services and resources is sustainable when we demand less than the Earth can supply, i.e., when the global ecological footprint equals or is less than the global biocapacity. Unfortunately, the footprint now exceeds the biocapacity, and the gap between the two is increasing. The Figure Ecological footprint Biocapacity Overshoot [2] illustrates an optimistic scenario in which we act quickly to close the gap between supply and demand. In the unsustainable situation when demand is greater than supply, as it is now, we build up an ecological debt. If we decrease the demand until it is less than the supply, then we can build up a reserve.

Cornucopianists argue that advances in technology could make the term T in I = P*C*T vanishingly small, so that both population and consumption are relatively unconstrained. To understand their reasoning I give the following quote from Edward O. Wilson’s Consilience, in which Wilson uses the term “Exemptionalist” synonymously with Cornucopianist: “Of course the exemptionalists will say that new technology and the rising tide of the free-market economy can solve the problem. The solution, they explain, is straightforward: Just use more land, fertilizer, and high-yield crops, and work harder to improve distribution. And, of course, encourage more education, technology transfer, and free trade. Oh, and discourage ethnic strife and political corruption. All that will certainly help, and should have high priority, but it cannot solve the main problem, which is the finite resources of planet Earth. It is true that only 11 percent of the world’s land surface is under cultivation. But that already includes the most arable part. The bulk of the remaining 89 percent has limited use, or none at all.” [3]

1. Speth, J.G., The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability. 2008, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. 295.

2. Hails, C., ed. Living Planet Report. 2008, WWF, ZSL, and the Global Footprint Network. 48. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/download.php?id=505

3. Wilson, E.O., Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge. 1998, New York, NY: Vintage Books. 367.

Case study: DuPont Plant, New Johnsonville, TN

For a number of years I took students in my graduate course Aqueous Geochemistry to tour the DuPont Plant in New Johnsonville, TN, about two hours west of Nashville. The plant manufactures Titanium Dioxide TiO₂ by mining the mineral ilmenite FeTiO₃ and reacting it Hydrochloric acid HCl as follows: FeTiO₃ + 2HCl = FeCl₂ (aq) + TiO₂ + H₂O. The Titanium dioxide is a pigment that gives Kilz paint, Oreos, and many types of toothpaste their brilliant white color. There are two problems with this process. One is that the product solution is still very acidic. The other problem is that ilmenite contains many toxic heavy metals that are soluble in the acidic solution. In the 1960’s when people didn’t know better, DuPont was allowed to dispose of hundreds of thousands of gallons of this toxic acid solution directly into the Tennessee River, which of course killed all fish and bottom feeders downstream. Later they switched to the more environmentally friendly but more expensive process of deep-well injection. They drilled wells between 1000-2000 feet deep and then pumped the acidic waste into a confined, deep limestone layer. The thinking was that the limestone (which contains calcite CaCO₃ and dolomite CaMg(CO₃)₂) would neutralize the acid: CaCO₃ + 2H⁺ = Ca²⁺ + H₂O + CO₂. The confining (impermeable) layer above would keep the waste isolated from shallow aquifers that supplied drinking water. Once again, there were two problems with this plan, which my class would remind the DuPont engineers of every year, and every year they would claim ignorance. First, the acidic solution dissolves the limestone, which results in the formation of large caves deep underground. Eventually the weight of the overlying rock layers causes them to collapse, breaking into pieces, falling, and filling the caves. This shatters the confining layer and makes it permeable, so that the wastes can rise up into the aquifers. The other problem is that, as shown in the reaction, limestone dissolution produces CO₂ gas, and the pressure of that gas can build until it shatters the overlying rock and escapes. Either way, it seemed likely that the confining layer would eventually be compromised. So, to their credit, DuPont came up with a new solution that was even more environmentally friendly but (they claimed) even more expensive. Since around the year 2000 DuPont has been reacting the ilmenite with sodium carbonate, and according to the DuPont engineers the only by-product is harmless FeCO₃ (the mineral siderite), which is used to make bricks for construction. However, recently it was learned that this process produces dioxin as a by-product. Pure Dioxin is the strongest poison known to man (it is the neurotoxin in Agent Orange), and the New Johnsonville Plant is the fourth-largest producer of dioxin in the U.S..

This case study illustrates many different points. First, it is difficult to anticipate all of the potential outcomes of a complex industrial process. That is why ecologists advocate the precautionary principle. Second, industrial chemistry sorely needs to be “greened”. Green chemistry is a field just now coming into its own, and it has the potential to reduce greatly the environmental impact of the chemical industry. Third, despite repeated attempts at trying to “green” the chemical process, the production of Titanium Dioxide still causes serious environmental problems. DuPont is being sued by numerous plaintiffs who live near or work at their Titanium Dioxide plant in DeLisle, Mississippi, who claim that dioxin has seriously damaged their health or caused the death of loved ones (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7693391300780002092). At New Johnsonville, TN, many citizens are afraid to talk about the health risks posed by the DuPont plant because they work for the plant, their livelihood depends on its success, and they fear retaliation (http://www.dupontsafetyrevealed.org/newjohnsonville.htm). This raises many questions: Should we allow chemical companies to manufacture goods like Titanium Dioxide that are nonessential (it is simply used for aesthetic reasons) but that cause great harm to human health and the environment? Or should we close the plants, even if it meant that thousands of people would lose their jobs? The plants in New Johnsonville DeLisle are by far the largest local employers, so closing them would be an economic disaster for those communities. In fact, years ago when DuPont reapplied to the State of Tennessee for a permit for deep well injection, a representative of the Tennessee Environmental Council asked me if I would testify against the application. I refused, saying that deep well injection seemed to be the best of the alternatives known at the time, and that I couldn’t bear the thought of helping to put all of those people in New Johnsonville out of work. Yes, I am pro-environment, so I believe we should always be looking for ways to protect the environment, but the overall benefits of change have to outweigh the overall negatives, and in this case, the economic vitality of New Johnsonville seemed to me to outweigh the potential risks of deep-well injection.

Environmental Risk

Here’s an example of how knowledge can sometimes make life more difficult. In the morning, I am often confronted with the question of whether to empty the water out of the teapot and refill it with fresh water. It seems wasteful to dump the water in the pot down the drain, and furthermore that water has degassed its fluorine (although all fluorine probably degasses during boiling anyway). However, the water may have leached heavy metals from the pot while in contact with it for several days, or perhaps bacteria have begun to grow in the water. Also, I am impatient, and prefer to fill the pot with hot water so it takes less time to boil. So I dump the water out and then run the tap water for one minute before filling the pot because water standing in our pipes overnight may have leached metals from our pipes (this is unlikely to be a problem for us, though, because the practice is designed to avoid lead that leaches from solder that connects Copper pipes, and most of our pipes are galvanized steel). Is it better to save energy by using the water already heated in my hot water heater rather than heating cold water on my stove until it boils? Or is it better to save water by not running it until the water gets hot, which in my house takes roughly one minute? There are so many considerations that go into making such a simple decision, that complex decisions can seem overwhelming. Am I overanalyzing every situation? Wouldn’t life be simpler if I always did what was easiest, but perhaps at a slightly higher level of risk? Are the perceived dangers great enough to warrant my concern? Won’t I become unhappy if I have to assess a list of threats for every decision I make? Thinking about the world this way does make it seem to be a dangerous place.

The best approach to this problem of “too much information” is to only concern yourself with the greatest potential threats. The problem is that human perception of risk in the modern world is notoriously inaccurate. Stone Age humans faced essentially the same risks that their ancestors faced may thousands of years previously. Natural selection caused humans to evolve, preparing them to better deal with these risks and reducing their chances of succumbing to those risks. Also, they could pass on survival strategies orally from generation to generation. My guess is that Stone Age humans’ perception of risks in their environment was largely accurate. However, our society and environment is now changing so rapidly that evolution does not have time to prepare us for the many new risks we are faced with. Furthermore, the risks our generation faces are different from the risks faced by our parents, so the wisdom they impart to us is not sufficient, and we have to rely on other sources of information to adequately deal with these new risks. In this new world, how well do our new coping strategies prepare us for risk? Not very well. A famous study published in Science (*v. 236, 1987) examined the perception of risk by groups such as college students and The League of Women Voters. They were asked to rank risk associated with twenty different activities. Their rankings were then compared with the actual risks, defined as the mortality rate for that activity (number of deaths per year associated with that activity, probably normalized to the number of people participating in that activity *check). These two groups rated “nuclear power” as the highest risk, when in reality it was the lowest risk. Studies like this have led to several generalizations about risk perception:

1. We are genetically predisposed to worry about risks, because worrying about risk increases our chances of survival. However, it is possible to worry too much.

2. We tend to overestimate the risk associated with high-impact, low probability events (e.g., nuclear power plant disasters)

3. Man-made risks worry us more than natural ones (e.g., radiation from power lines & cell phones are less dangerous than radiation from the sun)

4. New (unfamiliar) risks worry us more than old risks.

A good example of point 2 is air travel. Many people are so afraid of traveling on airplanes that they refuse to fly. However, per mile traveled, the risk of dying in an automobile is much greater than in an airplane.

So what are the risks associated with global warming, peak oil, and water pollution? We will examine that question in the following chapters.

The Behavior of Water Pollutants

In their textbook "Ecological Economics" (2004), Herman Daly and Joshua Farley say that the limits to human population growth may lie not in resource depletion, but in the waste absorption capacity of the environment. This can be understood with the following analogy. Water purification filters usually contain a resin that turns color when it becomes saturated, i.e., it cannot absorb any more pollutants. The interface between the two colors of resin (the reaction front) will migrate through the column from the inlet towards the outlet. Water flowing from the outlet will be purified until the interface reaches the end of the column, at which point the column resin is saturated in pollutants and cannot absorb any more. From that time on the outlet water will be just as polluted as the input water. In this case, the waste absorption capacity of the filter has been exceeded. Our environment acts as a filter, purifying water that passes through it, but eventually the filter will become saturated.

Let’s examine this in a little more detail. What happens when the concentration of a pollutant in a sediment-water system (lake or stream) keeps increasing? Examine langmuir 10-007. Imagine that we pour uranium U into a beaker containing water and sediment. Some of the U will dissolve in the solution, but some will adsorb onto the surface of mineral grains in the sediment. At first the proportions of U in solution and adsorbed to sediment will be constant as the total U concentration increases (move along a straight line away from the origin). As concentrations get higher the number of available sites for U to sorb onto mineral surfaces begins to decrease, and a greater proportion of U enters the fluid, causing the adsorption isotherm to level off and approach a slope of zero when the adsorption sites become “saturated”. Eventually even the solution becomes saturated, i.e., it can’t dissolve any more U. What happens then? Any additional U added to the system will precipitate out as a U-rich mineral (in this case Schoepite) that is added to the sediment and therefore causes the sediment concentration of uranium to begin increasing again. Note that as long as the solutions remains saturated in Schoepite, any additional U we add will go into the sediment, increasing the U concentration in the sediment. Conversely, no matter how much additional U we add, the concentration of U in the solution is fixed at its highest possible concentration. In this case, we have saturated our filter.

Let’s look at some slightly more complicated models in which the sediment but not the solution becomes saturated. Polluted water enters a beaker with sediment, equilibrates with the sediment, and then is replaced with another batch of polluted water. At first, a large proportion of the pollutant will sorb onto the sediment, causing the concentration in the solution to decrease substantially. As more batches of polluted water equilibrate with the sediment, the concentration of pollutant in the sediment will increase, and therefore the concentration of pollutant in the water that exits the beaker will increase in direct proportion. As the sediment approaches “saturation”, it can sorb less pollutant, so most of the pollutant remains in solution, and our sediment filter become increasingly ineffective.

What if we stop polluting? Can the system recover? Start adding batches of fresh water. You would observe that the water that exits the beaker would at first have high concentrations of pollutant because our sediment filter was saturated in pollutants. But with time, the concentration of pollutant in the sediment and in the exiting fluid would decrease and eventually go to zero. Thus, we can “flush” pollutants out of a sediment-water system such as a stream or lake, but it may take a long time and a lot of fresh water to remove all of the pollutant, especially if the pollutant strongly sorbs to the sediment (which is why PCB’s are still in Hudson River sediments after many decades).

Now imagine a reservoir such as a swamp with one stream entering and one stream exiting. If the stream entering the swamp is polluted, sediments near its entrance point will strip pollutants out of solution. With time, a concentration gradient will develop across the swamp, with high pollutant levels near the input stream and low levels near the output stream. As polluted water flows across the swamp, it encounters sediments with decreasing pollutant concentrations, so the concentration of the pollutant in the solution will continuously decrease. The water becomes increasingly pure as it traverses the swamp. In nature, swamps do an excellent job of filtering pollutants from water. However, if pollutants continue to enter the swamp, the total pollutant concentration in the swamp will keep increasing. Eventually sediments near the input stream will become saturated, and that “saturation front” will slowly migrate across the swamp until it reaches the output stream. At that point the entire swamp system has become saturated, and the output water will be just as polluted as the input water. As in our beaker example, if we stop polluting and the water in the input stream becomes pure again, then over time the process will be reversed, and the pollutants will slowly be flushed out of the swamp.

How Much Oil in Alaska?

*Note: my spring semester is over, so I will be publishing at a much greater frequency.

My goal is to dispel the falsehoods spread by talk show hosts and politicians. Last night an acquaintance said he had heard from several sources that there is about 60 years of oil for the U.S. in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge ANWR. I told him that what I had heard was that, given our current oil consumption rate, it was more like a two year supply (if it was our only source of oil).  To last 60 years the ANWR would have to contain more oil than Saudi Arabia ever had, and that gave him pause.

The problem is that people listen to talk-show hosts and believe everything they say. The talk-show host is not an expert on the subject, and what he says may be totally unreasonable, but many people accept his statements uncritically, and don't make an effort to find out for themselves.

When I got home that night, I looked up the statistics. According to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Refuge_drilling_controversy) "the total production from ANWR would be between 0.4 and 1.2 percent of total world oil consumption in 2030. Consequently, ANWR oil production is not projected to have a large impact on world oil prices..[24] … In 1998, the USGS estimated that between 5.7 and 16.0 billion barrels (2.54×109 m3) of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas liquids are in the coastal plain area of ANWR, with a mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels (1.65×109 m3), of which 7.7 billion barrels (1.22×109 m3) lie within the Federal portion of the ANWR 1002 Area.[17] … In 2007, the United States consumed 20.68 m bbls of petroleum products per day."

Using the mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels, and an annual consumption rate of 20.68E6*365=7.54E9 barrels per year, it would take only 10.4E9/7.54E9=1.38 years to consume all of the oil. For the upper limit of 16 billion barrels we would have 16E9/7.54E9=2.1 years. Considering our rate of consumption of oil is continuously increasing, an estimate of two years supply is a reasonable upper limit.  So regardless of what Sarah Palin says, no, we don't have enough oil in Alaska to solve our energy problem.  In addition, if we do open the ANWR up to drilling, it would not contribute significantly to domestic crude oil production until 2018 (Wikipedia).

Water Pollution Case Study: Lake Erie

I grew up in Buffalo, New York in the 1960’s and 1970’s, when pollution was reaching its peak in the rust belt and the environmental movement was beginning. One of the watershed moments in the environmental movement was the discovery in 1978 of toxic waste underneath a school in Love Canal, near Niagara Falls and very close to Buffalo. Until I was six we lived down the street from Lake Erie, and I still recall walking along the shoreline with a clean-up crew. The Lake was very polluted at that time; signs posted near fishing areas stated severe limits on consumption of caught fish due to the threat of mercury poisoning. Not that there were many fish to catch; the only type of fish anyone caught was catfish. Why only catfish? Because catfish don’t need oxygen in the water to breathe; unlike other fish who use gills to extract dissolved oxygen from water, catfish obtain their oxygen by gulping air when they come to the surface. The problem in Lake Erie and many other bodies of water at that time was that it was eutrophic, i.e., oxygen-depleted. In the process of eutrophication, limiting nutrients like phosphorous and nitrogen added to the water cause algae blooms. When the algae die, they decompose:

C6H12O6 + 6O2 = 6 CO2 + 6H2O

This consumes the oxygen dissolved in the lake water. In temperate regions such as upstate New York, lakes have two layers: a shallow, warm, buoyant layer and a deep, cold, dense layer. In a eutrophic lake, the shallow layer in contact with the atmosphere is oxygen-rich, but the deep layer becomes oxygen depleted because the dead algae sink to the bottom of the lake and decompose. In the fall and spring the density difference between the two layers disappears and they mix together. The problem is that, especially in the fall, the deep water has no oxygen, so when it mixes with the shallow water the resulting mixture does not have enough oxygen for fish to breathe, and they die in large numbers. This is still a widespread problem in many areas of the U.S.. In fact, there is now a huge “dead zone” near the Mississippi delta in the Gulf of Mexico that formed because fertilizer-derived nutrients caused algae blooms and eutrophication. The good news is that there is a solution. Simply removing phosphorous from detergents in areas surrounding Lake Erie led to a decline in algae blooms, and now the lake has mostly recovered. No one is worse off for using phosphate-free detergents, but for some reason in areas where regulations allow it (including my current home state of Tennessee) most detergents still contain phosphates, and eutrophication is still a problem.

Lake Erie is still not without problems. In summers, beaches are often temporarily closed after rainfall events. Why? Because wastewater disposal systems have limited capacity, and during heavy rains they fill up and then overflow into local streams, which flow to the lake. You may have noticed that water treatment plants and pumping stations usually have overflow ponds with pipes near the top that drain into a stream. When it rains, you can observe the overflow ponds fill up. Once they are full, any additional wastewater flows out through the pipe and dumps into the stream. Ironically, water in streams is usually dirtiest after rainfall events. Currently many cities are in the process of upgrading their wastewater systems under federal mandate. The problem is the same problem we face with highways; you can add more lanes, but traffic will build until a few years later it as just as congested as it was before you added the lanes. Population growth means that the ideal size of a service system is a moving target, and these systems frequently require expensive expansion projects. The city of Nashville had to increase its water bill in 2009 in order to pay for the expansion of its wastewater system, which will cost hundreds of millions of dollars.

Lawn Care

I’m a pretty modest guy, but whenever I see my neighbors spending huge amounts of time and money maintaining their green grass lawns I feel smug. My yard requires almost no effort and no money to maintain. True, it’s a full acre, which is about 4-5 times larger than I would like, but the zoning rules in my suburban neighborhood require that lots be no smaller than one acre (see how fast that changes when gas permanently rises above $5 per gallon). As a result, I require a small lawn tractor to mow my lawn, and I feel guilty about the amount of gas I use, and the large amount of raw materials needed to make the mower (let alone the cost). We use a reel mower for small areas that are hard to get to. So other than mowing, my lawn is maintenance-free. Why? Because I let nature decide what will grown on my lawn. Nature wisely chooses the plants that are best acclimated to our climate. This leads to a rich diversity of healthy plants carpeting my lawn. What are my neighbors doing? They partake in a cultural aberration that is almost unique to the U.S. and that began after WWII: they are growing monoculture grasses. Only one grass species, nay, only one plant species is allowed to grow on their lawns. And if you have unlimited amounts of oil to provide energy for machines to mow, aerate, and edge, and to make fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides, why be limited to only indigenous species? Why not choose a grass that you saw on vacation on a golf course hundreds of miles away? Maybe it’s not the species that is best suited to the local climate, but all of the chemicals will make up for that. If pests try to dig in your lawn, you can easily find poisons targeted for each type of pest. All it takes is time and money to kill every living thing but one: that single grass species that you love. If you’re wealthy, you can pay companies like Chemlawn to come and broadcast spray your yard every week with chemicals designed to kill everything except your precious grass. But don’t let your kids or pets play on the lawn! Well, no worries there, how often do you see kids nowadays playing outside? As long as you can see a uniform sea of green outside your window, who cares if your environment has become sterile?

Obviously what we’ve described is an unsustainable, even bizarre form of behavior. I feel smug because I haven’t mindlessly followed the self-defeating lawn care practices of my neighbors. Why fight against nature when it can be your ally? What is the purpose of a lawn, anyway? It’s nice to have a lawn for the kids to play sports on, but nowadays parents cart them off to manicured ball fields many miles away to play organized sports. Lawns today serve almost no purpose. Why do I have an acre of grass (actually, it’s mostly onions and clover)? I don’t want it because I don’t use it for anything. Yes, I did play with my kids on the lawn when they were little, but we could have done the same on a yard ¼ the size. We would have been happy to walk a block or two to play in a neighborhood park, but suburban neighborhoods aren’t set up that way. In fact, the design of suburban neighborhoods does not follow their function at all. People appreciate that machines like cars should be designed to perform their function most efficiently. But most people cannot even describe the function of their yard, so how could they decide on an optimal design?

Don’t just settle for the mindless suburban mindset by growing a green grass lawn. Avoid the use of harmful pesticides and herbicides, and of fertilizers that pollute streams and cause eutrophication. Avoid wasting the large amount of time and energy required to maintain it. Don’t fight against nature: let the plants that are most fit win control of your yard, because nature knows best.

The Evils of Coal

*I am rushing to post a few blogs for my Sustainability students to read before their final exam, so this entry is only partially complete.

*Note: An excellent recent article in the New York Times makes many of the points that I hope to make in this book. See:

"New Limits to Growth Revive Malthusian Fears" <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120613138379155707.html>

From the global warming perspective, you might think that decreasing oil supply would be good because it would lead to decreasing CO2 emissions. Unfortunately, we are likely to turn to other fossil fuels that emit more CO2 per unit energy (*give table with CO2 per unit energy). And the dirtiest fuel we have available is coal.

Coal companies are now under pressure, and in classic corporate fashion are responding with an ad campaign that makes a joke of the truth. The ad I saw on TV last night emphasized in audio and text that coal is a clean fuel. Actually, it’s the dirtiest fuel I can think of. If you have ever held a piece of coal, perhaps on Christmas in a year you were “naughty”, you know that it is dirty. You touch it and your hands turn black. If you burn it you will see lots of dirty smoke, and when you’re done burning it you will have a pile of ashes. It’s very similar to charcoal; both form by partial oxidation (burning) of organic matter, usually cellulose-rich plant material such as wood, and both are dirty. Coal was the preferred fuel of the 19^th century in England, when everything was covered with a layer of black soot. It was not coincidence that cancer was discovered in England at that time. A doctor noticed that chimney sweeps often had testicular cancer. This was because the sweeps were usually orphans pressed into hard labor, who were forced to take off all of their clothes so they could fit inside a chimney. They would climb the chimneys to clean them, and their bodies were always covered in black soot.

One of the first laws against air pollution came in 1300 when King Edward I decreed the death penalty for burning of coal.  At least one execution for that offense is recorded.  But economics triumphed over health considerations, and air pollution became an appalling problem in England.  ~Glenn T. Seaborg, Atomic Energy Commission chairman, speech, Argonne National Laboratory, 1969

But the most dangerous effect of burning coal is not the visible carcinogenic pollutants that are released when it is burned, nor the fly ash that remains after burning; it is the huge amount of CO2 that is released to the atmosphere. Coal is fossilized plant matter, so the reverse of Eq. 1 shows what happens when we burn it. Coal releases more CO2 per unit energy than any other form of fuel (see Table ?). So not only does use of coal lead to mountaintop removal, failure of coal slurry retention ponds (Martin County, KY 2000), pollution, and failure of fly ash retention ponds (e.g., Kingston, TN 2008), it also leads to maximum possible CO2 emissions and global warming. I’m sorry, what were the selling points for coal? Oh, that we have a lot of it? Well, we have a lot of sewage too, but that doesn’t mean we would want to use it for anything.

Let me give you some examples of how coal companies operate. Massey Coal is an example of the worst of American corporations. The movie “Sludge” shows how a subsidiary of Massey, Martin County Coal, released 306 million gallons of coal slurry into the Coldwater Fork of Wolf Creek in eastern KY in 2000, which contaminated local drinking water. A Martin County Coal representative told residents that the slurry posed no health threats because everything in the slurry could be found in the periodic table. Whoa, that was reassuring. Once the Bush administration took office, the investigation into the cause was shut down, the one dissenter was fired, and Massey was ordered to pay a fine of only $110,000, which amazingly was later lowered to only $1000 (*check). Yes, that’s what we pay those government regulators for. In 2008 Massey had accrued fines of roughly $2.4 billion for violations of the Clean Water Act; in 2008 they agreed to pay $20 million to the U.S. EPA. Also in 2008 Massey paid $4.2 million in civil and criminal penalties resulting from a mine fire in West Virginia in 2006, the largest financial settlement in the history of the coal industry (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massey_Coal). Recently I heard on the radio that Massey is involved in a lawsuit that has reached the U.S. Supreme Court. It seems a competitor, Harman Mining, refused to sell a coal mine to Massey, so Massey bought all of the property surrounding that mine and prevented access to the property. The competitor sued in court and won $50 million, but Massey appealed it to the State Supreme Court. Massey’s chief executive Don Blankenship arranged donations of $3 million to get Brent Benjamin elected to the West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals (the $3 million was spent on a character assassination campaign against Benjamin’s opponent). When Massey’s appeal made it to the Court of Appeals Benjamin refused to recuse himself from the case, and ended up casting the deciding vote in favor of Massey. Gee, do you think he was biased? Do you think Massey bought the court’s decision? Why do we allow the public election of judges in this country, anyway? The U.S. Supreme Court head the case in March 2009, and we are currently waiting to see if they reinstate the judgement against Massey.

Here is some dirt on Massey CEO Don Blankenship from Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massey_Coal): “On November 22, 2008 the Williamson (Daily News (Williamson, WV) reported that Massey CEO Don Blankenship compared the editor of the Charleston Gazette, James A. Haught, to Osama bin Laden at a public speech to the Tug Valley Mining Institute on Nov 20 ^[59]. In the videotaped speech, Blankenship called House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senator Harry Reid and former Vice President Al Gore "crazies" and "greeniacs" ^[60]. He referred to the support of President Jimmy Carter for energy conservation in the 1970s to communism: "Buy a smaller car? Conserve? I have spent quite a bit of time in Russia and China, and that's the first stage."

On April 3, 2008, ABC News reported that CEO Blankenship attacked an ABC News cameraman at a Massey facility near Belfry, Kentucky as the camerman attempted to question Blankenship about photos published in the New York Times ^[61] showing Blankenship on vacation in Monaco with West Virginia Supreme Court Justice Elliott "Spike" Maynard. "If you're going to start taking pictures of me, you're liable to get shot," Blankenship stated in the video^[62]. Following the incident, Justice Maynard lost his bid for re-election to the West Virginia Supreme Court in the West Virginia primary election ^[63].

Clean coal is an oxymoron, similar to “healthy cigarettes”. Coal is the dirtiest form of energy we have. When Obama refers to clean coal, he means that all of the CO2 is captured and sequestered.

See Clean Coal Air Freshener parody: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-_U1Z0vezw

Clean Coal: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLZ-hvVVGmY&NR=1